Head-to-head presidential preference polls are all the rage, but ever since Dwight D. Eisenhower’s reelection in 1956, the pros have looked to approval ratings as the key to an incumbent’s chances.
And for President Joe Biden , the numbers look bad.
While he is even or leading former President Donald Trump in some racehorse polls, Biden’s approval rating is about 10 points under the previous record low of a winning incumbent.
That was former President George W. Bush , who beat then-Sen. John Kerry, despite having a 48% approval rating.
In a new Hill/DDHQ survey, just 38.6% approve of Biden, 58.1% don’t. In the Gallup tracking poll, Biden is at 40% approval.
Pollsters such as Gallup have said that an approval of 50% or higher is the key to reelection. Drop below, and chances shrink to just 50-50.
Bush had the lowest approval rating in decades, but a recent Gallup analysis noted that “he registered multiple 50% readings earlier in the month and had a 51% approval rating among likely voters in that final survey.” Biden hasn't seen 50% since late July 2021.
The closest presidential approval rating of an incumbent to Biden today is former President Jimmy Carter, who had a 37% approval rating entering the election. He lost in a historic landslide to former President Ronald Reagan.
In its February analysis, Gallup said that Biden needs an Obama-sized comeback to win. In 2012 the economy recovered and helped to return former President Barack Obama and Vice President Biden to the White House.
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But today’s surprisingly bad reports on GDP and inflation are not likely to help Biden, whose recent pop in polls has faded.
“Biden’s reelection chances do not look very favorable in early 2024 . His job approval rating is lower than all recent incumbents at the same point, including those who ultimately lost the election, and key national mood indicators are more in line with those for past losers than winners,” said Gallup.
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